KEYSTONE · MORPHO DIGITAL ORGANISM & FIGHT CLUB DESK

Updated: 2026-11-01T03:52:15.280Z · Tailscale: http://100.99.175.106:8790/ · Flip Watch: Port 8788

1. Live Round & Market Shape

Ticker:KXBTC15M-26NOV010000-00
Spot vs Strike:$77653.59 vs $77697.82 ($-44.23)
Time Left:467s (t_eff: 7.12m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 11/12¢ · NO 88/89¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $1395K / Ask $1005K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:LOW_VOL_PIN / CHOP_NEUTRAL

2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status

Real Trader Status:ARMED
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$83.3 (Open Pos: NONE)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$547.41 (Wins: 29/42)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$85.61
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:2/3 (NORMAL_FLOW)

3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar

Whale Radar Status:CANARY_PRE_HIT (UP)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 11¢ / NO 89¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 12.6% vs Implied 12.9%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:YES @ 12¢ (Net Edge: -1.8¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$477,521 (54.9% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:ETH/SOL 6-12s LEAD CANARY FIRING UP (ETH imb 99.2%, SOL imb 97.9%)

4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)

{
  "multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
    "BTC": {
      "price": 77653.59,
      "bookDepthUsd": 1200000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 6.5,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 50.47,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
    },
    "ETH": {
      "price": 2264.77,
      "bookDepthUsd": 420000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 5.23,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "SOL": {
      "price": 95.48,
      "bookDepthUsd": 210000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.64,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "XRP": {
      "price": 1.2487,
      "bookDepthUsd": 140000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "price": 0.0754543,
      "bookDepthUsd": 110000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "GOLD_GC": {
      "price": 2785.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 650000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
      "venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
      "price": 71.25,
      "bookDepthUsd": 380000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
      "venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "PALLADIUM_PA": {
      "price": 1142,
      "bookDepthUsd": 65000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
      "venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
    }
  },
  "moduleFitness": {
    "LOW_VOL_PIN": {
      "triggers": 12,
      "rejected": 2,
      "trades": 10,
      "officialSettledTrades": 10,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 70,
      "netDollars": -0.65,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 80,
      "proxyNetDollars": 16.35,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -0.65,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "FAST_IGNITION": {
      "triggers": 161,
      "rejected": 19,
      "trades": 142,
      "officialSettledTrades": 142,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 61.3,
      "netDollars": -25.22,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 63.4,
      "proxyNetDollars": 15.78,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -36.08,
      "status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
    },
    "BOTTOM_FLIP": {
      "triggers": 56,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 51,
      "officialSettledTrades": 51,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 17.6,
      "netDollars": -105.26,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 17.6,
      "proxyNetDollars": -105.26,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 67.63,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "SURE_THING_GRIND": {
      "triggers": 14,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 9,
      "officialSettledTrades": 9,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 77.8,
      "netDollars": -10.85,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 88.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": 0.15,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -10.85,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
      "triggers": 39,
      "rejected": 8,
      "trades": 31,
      "officialSettledTrades": 31,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 29,
      "netDollars": 96.98,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 38.7,
      "proxyNetDollars": 257.98,
      "makerTouches": 19,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 19,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 97.02,
      "rolling20Dollars": 161.95,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    }
  },
  "crossCoinCanaries": {
    "BTC": {
      "px": 77654.79,
      "buy15sUsd": 3863,
      "sell15sUsd": 5,
      "net15sUsd": 3858,
      "imbalancePct": 99.7,
      "rvol15s": 0.39,
      "ret3mBps": 0.58
    },
    "ETH": {
      "px": 2264.77,
      "buy15sUsd": 287,
      "sell15sUsd": 1,
      "net15sUsd": 286,
      "imbalancePct": 99.2,
      "rvol15s": 0.03,
      "ret3mBps": -0.09
    },
    "SOL": {
      "px": 95.48,
      "buy15sUsd": 28659,
      "sell15sUsd": 311,
      "net15sUsd": 28348,
      "imbalancePct": 97.9,
      "rvol15s": 2.9,
      "ret3mBps": 1.05
    },
    "XRP": {
      "px": 1.2487,
      "buy15sUsd": 53205,
      "sell15sUsd": 196631,
      "net15sUsd": -143426,
      "imbalancePct": 57.4,
      "rvol15s": 24.98,
      "ret3mBps": 4.01
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "px": 0.0754543,
      "buy15sUsd": 1355,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 1355,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0.14,
      "ret3mBps": 0
    }
  }
}