KEYSTONE · MORPHO DIGITAL ORGANISM & FIGHT CLUB DESK

Updated: 2026-11-01T05:44:58.390Z · Tailscale: http://100.99.175.106:8790/ · Flip Watch: Port 8788

1. Live Round & Market Shape

Ticker:KXBTC15M-26NOV010145-45
Spot vs Strike:$77666.06 vs $77704.56 ($-38.5)
Time Left:4s (t_eff: 0m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 0/0.1¢ · NO 99.9/100¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $1010K / Ask $1047K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:LOW_VOL_PIN / WARMING_OR_BELL

2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status

Real Trader Status:ARMED
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$228.06 (Open Pos: NONE)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$549.08 (Wins: 33/49)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$105.43
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:3/3 (NORMAL_FLOW)

3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar

Whale Radar Status:QUIET (DOWN)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 0¢ / NO 100¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 13.4% vs Implied 350%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:YES @ 0.1¢ (Net Edge: -0.2¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$0 (0% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:No whale wall reload or cross-coin front-run detected in current 15s window.

4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)

{
  "multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
    "BTC": {
      "price": 77666.06,
      "bookDepthUsd": 1028500,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 7.2,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 55.92,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
    },
    "ETH": {
      "price": 2262.92,
      "bookDepthUsd": 420000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 5.23,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "SOL": {
      "price": 95.37,
      "bookDepthUsd": 210000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.64,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "XRP": {
      "price": 1.2517,
      "bookDepthUsd": 140000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "price": 0.0757,
      "bookDepthUsd": 110000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "GOLD_GC": {
      "price": 2785.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 650000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
      "venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
      "price": 71.25,
      "bookDepthUsd": 380000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
      "venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "PALLADIUM_PA": {
      "price": 1142,
      "bookDepthUsd": 65000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
      "venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
    }
  },
  "moduleFitness": {
    "LOW_VOL_PIN": {
      "triggers": 14,
      "rejected": 2,
      "trades": 12,
      "officialSettledTrades": 12,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 66.7,
      "netDollars": -4.35,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 75,
      "proxyNetDollars": 12.65,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -4.35,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "FAST_IGNITION": {
      "triggers": 162,
      "rejected": 19,
      "trades": 143,
      "officialSettledTrades": 143,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 60.8,
      "netDollars": -35.36,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 62.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": 5.64,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -36.35,
      "status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
    },
    "BOTTOM_FLIP": {
      "triggers": 56,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 51,
      "officialSettledTrades": 51,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 17.6,
      "netDollars": -105.26,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 17.6,
      "proxyNetDollars": -105.26,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 67.63,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "SURE_THING_GRIND": {
      "triggers": 14,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 9,
      "officialSettledTrades": 9,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 77.8,
      "netDollars": -10.85,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 88.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": 0.15,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -10.85,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
      "triggers": 40,
      "rejected": 8,
      "trades": 32,
      "officialSettledTrades": 32,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 28.1,
      "netDollars": 86.55,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 37.5,
      "proxyNetDollars": 247.55,
      "makerTouches": 19,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 19,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 97.02,
      "rolling20Dollars": 162.08,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    }
  },
  "crossCoinCanaries": {
    "BTC": {
      "px": 77666.06,
      "buy15sUsd": 4841,
      "sell15sUsd": 125,
      "net15sUsd": 4716,
      "imbalancePct": 95,
      "rvol15s": 0.26,
      "ret3mBps": 4.51
    },
    "ETH": {
      "px": 2262.92,
      "buy15sUsd": 114,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 114,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0,
      "ret3mBps": 5.57
    },
    "SOL": {
      "px": 95.37,
      "buy15sUsd": 233,
      "sell15sUsd": 318,
      "net15sUsd": -85,
      "imbalancePct": 15.4,
      "rvol15s": 0.04,
      "ret3mBps": 4.2
    },
    "XRP": {
      "px": 1.2517,
      "buy15sUsd": 0,
      "sell15sUsd": 3719,
      "net15sUsd": -3719,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0.3,
      "ret3mBps": 6.4
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "px": 0.0757,
      "buy15sUsd": 0,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 0,
      "imbalancePct": 0,
      "rvol15s": 0,
      "ret3mBps": 8.09
    }
  }
}