1. Live Round & Market Shape
Ticker:KXBTC15M-26NOV011245-45
Spot vs Strike:$77980.78 vs $78021.9 ($-41.12)
Time Left:211s (t_eff: 2.85m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 6.1/6.2¢ · NO 93.8/93.9¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $522K / Ask $1719K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:FLIP_SHAPE / THETA_PIN
2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status
Real Trader Status:PAUSED SAFELY (real-off)
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$0 (Open Pos: NONE)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$380.02 (Wins: 49/74)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$129.82
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:3/3 (NORMAL_FLOW)
3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar
Whale Radar Status:WHALE_STAGING (DOWN)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 0¢ / NO 100¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 7.6% vs Implied 14.7%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:YES @ 6.2¢ (Net Edge: -6.7¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$-429,896 (73.2% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:KRAKEN ASK WALL STACKED ($1719K Ask vs $522K Bid)
4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)
{
"multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
"BTC": {
"price": 77980.78,
"bookDepthUsd": 1120500,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 6.8,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 53.03,
"venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
},
"ETH": {
"price": 2265.46,
"bookDepthUsd": 420000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 5.23,
"venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
},
"SOL": {
"price": 94.63,
"bookDepthUsd": 210000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.63,
"venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
},
"XRP": {
"price": 1.2508,
"bookDepthUsd": 140000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
"venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
},
"DOGE": {
"price": 0.07548,
"bookDepthUsd": 110000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
"venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
},
"GOLD_GC": {
"price": 2785.4,
"bookDepthUsd": 650000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
"venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
},
"CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
"price": 71.25,
"bookDepthUsd": 380000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
"venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
},
"PALLADIUM_PA": {
"price": 1142,
"bookDepthUsd": 65000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
"venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
}
},
"moduleFitness": {
"LOW_VOL_PIN": {
"triggers": 16,
"rejected": 2,
"trades": 14,
"officialSettledTrades": 14,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 71.4,
"netDollars": 10.36,
"proxyWinRatePct": 64.3,
"proxyNetDollars": -3.64,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": 10.36,
"status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
},
"FAST_IGNITION": {
"triggers": 195,
"rejected": 25,
"trades": 170,
"officialSettledTrades": 170,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 58.8,
"netDollars": -103,
"proxyWinRatePct": 61.8,
"proxyNetDollars": -28,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": -60.89,
"status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
},
"BOTTOM_FLIP": {
"triggers": 66,
"rejected": 7,
"trades": 59,
"officialSettledTrades": 59,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 18.6,
"netDollars": -85.03,
"proxyWinRatePct": 18.6,
"proxyNetDollars": -92.03,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": 29.66,
"status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
},
"SURE_THING_GRIND": {
"triggers": 20,
"rejected": 10,
"trades": 10,
"officialSettledTrades": 10,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 80,
"netDollars": -9.51,
"proxyWinRatePct": 90,
"proxyNetDollars": 1.49,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": -9.51,
"status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
},
"JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
"triggers": 53,
"rejected": 8,
"trades": 45,
"officialSettledTrades": 45,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 26.7,
"netDollars": 95.51,
"proxyWinRatePct": 33.3,
"proxyNetDollars": 251.51,
"makerTouches": 24,
"makerStrictCrosses": 24,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 124.2,
"rolling20Dollars": -21.18,
"status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
}
},
"crossCoinCanaries": {
"BTC": {
"px": 77980.78,
"buy15sUsd": 1291,
"sell15sUsd": 6686,
"net15sUsd": -5395,
"imbalancePct": 67.6,
"rvol15s": 0.8,
"ret3mBps": -4.26
},
"ETH": {
"px": 2265.46,
"buy15sUsd": 1595,
"sell15sUsd": 1892,
"net15sUsd": -297,
"imbalancePct": 8.5,
"rvol15s": 0.35,
"ret3mBps": -9.13
},
"SOL": {
"px": 94.63,
"buy15sUsd": 266,
"sell15sUsd": 1762,
"net15sUsd": -1496,
"imbalancePct": 73.8,
"rvol15s": 0.2,
"ret3mBps": -10.56
},
"XRP": {
"px": 1.2508,
"buy15sUsd": 19,
"sell15sUsd": 126,
"net15sUsd": -107,
"imbalancePct": 73.9,
"rvol15s": 0.01,
"ret3mBps": -7.99
},
"DOGE": {
"px": 0.07548,
"buy15sUsd": 15,
"sell15sUsd": 329,
"net15sUsd": -314,
"imbalancePct": 91.5,
"rvol15s": 0.03,
"ret3mBps": -6.62
}
}
}