1. Live Round & Market Shape
Ticker:KXBTC15M-26NOV011500-00
Spot vs Strike:$77634.81 vs $77667.69 ($-32.88)
Time Left:300s (t_eff: 4.33m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 19/20¢ · NO 80/81¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $723K / Ask $1414K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:LOW_VOL_PIN / CHOP_NEUTRAL
2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status
Real Trader Status:PAUSED SAFELY (real-off)
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$0 (Open Pos: NONE)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$372.86 (Wins: 53/79)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$132.55
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:3/3 (POST_5M_BELL_EXHAUSTION_SEAM)
3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar
Whale Radar Status:QUIET (UP)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 17¢ / NO 83¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 15.4% vs Implied 17.2%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:YES @ 20¢ (Net Edge: -4.2¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$34,962 (20.6% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:No whale wall reload or cross-coin front-run detected in current 15s window.
4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)
{
"multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
"BTC": {
"price": 77634.81,
"bookDepthUsd": 1068500,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 7,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 54.34,
"venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
},
"ETH": {
"price": 2255.63,
"bookDepthUsd": 420000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 5.21,
"venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
},
"SOL": {
"price": 93.85,
"bookDepthUsd": 210000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.63,
"venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
},
"XRP": {
"price": 1.2447,
"bookDepthUsd": 140000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
"venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
},
"DOGE": {
"price": 0.0749779,
"bookDepthUsd": 110000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
"venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
},
"GOLD_GC": {
"price": 2785.4,
"bookDepthUsd": 650000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
"venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
},
"CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
"price": 71.25,
"bookDepthUsd": 380000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
"venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
},
"PALLADIUM_PA": {
"price": 1142,
"bookDepthUsd": 65000,
"estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
"estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
"venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
}
},
"moduleFitness": {
"LOW_VOL_PIN": {
"triggers": 18,
"rejected": 2,
"trades": 16,
"officialSettledTrades": 16,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 68.8,
"netDollars": 9.11,
"proxyWinRatePct": 68.8,
"proxyNetDollars": 11.11,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": 9.11,
"status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
},
"FAST_IGNITION": {
"triggers": 202,
"rejected": 25,
"trades": 177,
"officialSettledTrades": 177,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 58.2,
"netDollars": -126.31,
"proxyWinRatePct": 61.6,
"proxyNetDollars": -35.31,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": -93.07,
"status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
},
"BOTTOM_FLIP": {
"triggers": 66,
"rejected": 7,
"trades": 59,
"officialSettledTrades": 59,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 18.6,
"netDollars": -85.03,
"proxyWinRatePct": 18.6,
"proxyNetDollars": -92.03,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": 29.66,
"status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
},
"SURE_THING_GRIND": {
"triggers": 22,
"rejected": 10,
"trades": 12,
"officialSettledTrades": 12,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 83.3,
"netDollars": -7.15,
"proxyWinRatePct": 91.7,
"proxyNetDollars": 3.85,
"makerTouches": 0,
"makerStrictCrosses": 0,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
"rolling20Dollars": -7.15,
"status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
},
"JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
"triggers": 54,
"rejected": 8,
"trades": 46,
"officialSettledTrades": 46,
"pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
"winRatePct": 26.1,
"netDollars": 85.06,
"proxyWinRatePct": 34.8,
"proxyNetDollars": 286.06,
"makerTouches": 25,
"makerStrictCrosses": 25,
"touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 129.05,
"rolling20Dollars": -21.26,
"status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
}
},
"crossCoinCanaries": {
"BTC": {
"px": 77633.27,
"buy15sUsd": 3511,
"sell15sUsd": 7097,
"net15sUsd": -3586,
"imbalancePct": 33.8,
"rvol15s": 1.06,
"ret3mBps": -1.95
},
"ETH": {
"px": 2255.63,
"buy15sUsd": 1446,
"sell15sUsd": 6473,
"net15sUsd": -5026,
"imbalancePct": 63.5,
"rvol15s": 0.79,
"ret3mBps": -3.81
},
"SOL": {
"px": 93.85,
"buy15sUsd": 942,
"sell15sUsd": 2373,
"net15sUsd": -1430,
"imbalancePct": 43.1,
"rvol15s": 0.33,
"ret3mBps": -2.13
},
"XRP": {
"px": 1.2447,
"buy15sUsd": 2042,
"sell15sUsd": 612,
"net15sUsd": 1430,
"imbalancePct": 53.9,
"rvol15s": 0.27,
"ret3mBps": -5.62
},
"DOGE": {
"px": 0.0749779,
"buy15sUsd": 53,
"sell15sUsd": 0,
"net15sUsd": 53,
"imbalancePct": 100,
"rvol15s": 0.01,
"ret3mBps": -4.63
}
}
}