KEYSTONE · MORPHO DIGITAL ORGANISM & FIGHT CLUB DESK

Updated: 2026-11-01T07:53:58.379Z · Tailscale: http://100.99.175.106:8790/ · Flip Watch: Port 8788

1. Live Round & Market Shape

Ticker:KXBTC15M-26NOV010300-00
Spot vs Strike:$77789.83 vs $77738.57 (+$51.26)
Time Left:363s (t_eff: 5.38m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 94.9/95¢ · NO 5/5.1¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $2K / Ask $2227K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:BREAKOUT_3SIGMA / CHOP_NEUTRAL

2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status

Real Trader Status:ARMED
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$129.59 (Open Pos: YES)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$471.57 (Wins: 35/52)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$108.39
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:2/3 (NORMAL_FLOW)

3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar

Whale Radar Status:WHALE_STAGING (DOWN)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 88¢ / NO 12¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 17.4% vs Implied 12.6%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:NO @ 5.1¢ (Net Edge: 6.5¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$150,709 (73% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:KRAKEN ASK WALL STACKED ($2227K Ask vs $2K Bid)

4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)

{
  "multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
    "BTC": {
      "price": 77789.83,
      "bookDepthUsd": 1114500,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 6.8,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 52.9,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
    },
    "ETH": {
      "price": 2266.46,
      "bookDepthUsd": 420000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 5.24,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "SOL": {
      "price": 95.36,
      "bookDepthUsd": 210000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.64,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "XRP": {
      "price": 1.25136,
      "bookDepthUsd": 140000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "price": 0.0757236,
      "bookDepthUsd": 110000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "GOLD_GC": {
      "price": 2785.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 650000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
      "venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
      "price": 71.25,
      "bookDepthUsd": 380000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
      "venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "PALLADIUM_PA": {
      "price": 1142,
      "bookDepthUsd": 65000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
      "venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
    }
  },
  "moduleFitness": {
    "LOW_VOL_PIN": {
      "triggers": 16,
      "rejected": 2,
      "trades": 14,
      "officialSettledTrades": 14,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 71.4,
      "netDollars": 10.36,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 64.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": -3.64,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 10.36,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "FAST_IGNITION": {
      "triggers": 164,
      "rejected": 20,
      "trades": 144,
      "officialSettledTrades": 144,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 61.1,
      "netDollars": -28.35,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 63.2,
      "proxyNetDollars": 12.65,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -38.12,
      "status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
    },
    "BOTTOM_FLIP": {
      "triggers": 57,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 52,
      "officialSettledTrades": 52,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 19.2,
      "netDollars": -63.71,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 17.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": -115.71,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 74.63,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "SURE_THING_GRIND": {
      "triggers": 15,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 10,
      "officialSettledTrades": 10,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 80,
      "netDollars": -9.51,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 90,
      "proxyNetDollars": 1.49,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -9.51,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
      "triggers": 42,
      "rejected": 8,
      "trades": 34,
      "officialSettledTrades": 34,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 29.4,
      "netDollars": 120.65,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 35.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": 226.65,
      "makerTouches": 20,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 20,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 103.05,
      "rolling20Dollars": 114.07,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    }
  },
  "crossCoinCanaries": {
    "BTC": {
      "px": 77789.84,
      "buy15sUsd": 15870,
      "sell15sUsd": 5,
      "net15sUsd": 15865,
      "imbalancePct": 99.9,
      "rvol15s": 1.58,
      "ret3mBps": 2.33
    },
    "ETH": {
      "px": 2266.46,
      "buy15sUsd": 403,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 403,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0.04,
      "ret3mBps": 1.01
    },
    "SOL": {
      "px": 95.36,
      "buy15sUsd": 177,
      "sell15sUsd": 34,
      "net15sUsd": 143,
      "imbalancePct": 67.9,
      "rvol15s": 0.02,
      "ret3mBps": 1.05
    },
    "XRP": {
      "px": 1.25136,
      "buy15sUsd": 688,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 688,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0.07,
      "ret3mBps": -2.72
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "px": 0.0757236,
      "buy15sUsd": 69,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 69,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0.01,
      "ret3mBps": 0
    }
  }
}