KEYSTONE · MORPHO DIGITAL ORGANISM & FIGHT CLUB DESK

Updated: 2026-11-01T13:49:53.627Z · Tailscale: http://100.99.175.106:8790/ · Flip Watch: Port 8788

1. Live Round & Market Shape

Ticker:KXBTC15M-26NOV010900-00
Spot vs Strike:$77824.42 vs $77842.46 ($-18.04)
Time Left:608s (t_eff: 9.47m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 50/51¢ · NO 49/50¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $126K / Ask $69K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:FLIP_SHAPE / CHOP_NEUTRAL

2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status

Real Trader Status:ARMED
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$79.01 (Open Pos: YES)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$356.58 (Wins: 43/65)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$122.05
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:1/3 (PRE_5M_BELL_PIN_RISK)

3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar

Whale Radar Status:QUIET (UP)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 38¢ / NO 62¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 17.4% vs Implied -%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:YES @ 51¢ (Net Edge: -14.8¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$710,762 (33.3% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:No whale wall reload or cross-coin front-run detected in current 15s window.

4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)

{
  "multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
    "BTC": {
      "price": 77824.42,
      "bookDepthUsd": 97500,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 33.2,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 258.38,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
    },
    "ETH": {
      "price": 2264.35,
      "bookDepthUsd": 420000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 5.23,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "SOL": {
      "price": 94.76,
      "bookDepthUsd": 210000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.63,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "XRP": {
      "price": 1.25014,
      "bookDepthUsd": 140000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "price": 0.0756504,
      "bookDepthUsd": 110000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "GOLD_GC": {
      "price": 2785.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 650000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
      "venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
      "price": 71.25,
      "bookDepthUsd": 380000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
      "venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "PALLADIUM_PA": {
      "price": 1142,
      "bookDepthUsd": 65000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
      "venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
    }
  },
  "moduleFitness": {
    "LOW_VOL_PIN": {
      "triggers": 16,
      "rejected": 2,
      "trades": 14,
      "officialSettledTrades": 14,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 71.4,
      "netDollars": 10.36,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 64.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": -3.64,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 10.36,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "FAST_IGNITION": {
      "triggers": 182,
      "rejected": 24,
      "trades": 158,
      "officialSettledTrades": 158,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 61.4,
      "netDollars": -27.11,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 63.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": 14.89,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 9.32,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "BOTTOM_FLIP": {
      "triggers": 63,
      "rejected": 7,
      "trades": 56,
      "officialSettledTrades": 56,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 17.9,
      "netDollars": -105.68,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 17.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": -112.68,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 22.6,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "SURE_THING_GRIND": {
      "triggers": 16,
      "rejected": 6,
      "trades": 10,
      "officialSettledTrades": 10,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 80,
      "netDollars": -9.51,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 90,
      "proxyNetDollars": 1.49,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -9.51,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
      "triggers": 51,
      "rejected": 8,
      "trades": 43,
      "officialSettledTrades": 42,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 1,
      "winRatePct": 26.2,
      "netDollars": 81.95,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 34.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": 272.5,
      "makerTouches": 24,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 24,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 124.2,
      "rolling20Dollars": 21.93,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    }
  },
  "crossCoinCanaries": {
    "BTC": {
      "px": 77824.42,
      "buy15sUsd": 72636,
      "sell15sUsd": 60083,
      "net15sUsd": 12553,
      "imbalancePct": 9.5,
      "rvol15s": 7.68,
      "ret3mBps": -1.68
    },
    "ETH": {
      "px": 2264.35,
      "buy15sUsd": 3050,
      "sell15sUsd": 60,
      "net15sUsd": 2990,
      "imbalancePct": 96.2,
      "rvol15s": 0.31,
      "ret3mBps": -1.15
    },
    "SOL": {
      "px": 94.76,
      "buy15sUsd": 2821,
      "sell15sUsd": 5847,
      "net15sUsd": -3026,
      "imbalancePct": 34.9,
      "rvol15s": 0.87,
      "ret3mBps": -5.27
    },
    "XRP": {
      "px": 1.25014,
      "buy15sUsd": 425,
      "sell15sUsd": 524,
      "net15sUsd": -99,
      "imbalancePct": 10.4,
      "rvol15s": 0.09,
      "ret3mBps": 0.08
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "px": 0.0756504,
      "buy15sUsd": 0,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 0,
      "imbalancePct": 0,
      "rvol15s": 0,
      "ret3mBps": 1.37
    }
  }
}