KEYSTONE · MORPHO DIGITAL ORGANISM & FIGHT CLUB DESK

Updated: 2026-11-01T11:51:36.806Z · Tailscale: http://100.99.175.106:8790/ · Flip Watch: Port 8788

1. Live Round & Market Shape

Ticker:KXBTC15M-26NOV010700-00
Spot vs Strike:$77799.89 vs $77818.87 ($-18.98)
Time Left:505s (t_eff: 7.75m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 30/31¢ · NO 69/70¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $155K / Ask $1459K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:LOW_VOL_PIN / CHOP_NEUTRAL

2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status

Real Trader Status:ARMED
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$106.28 (Open Pos: NONE)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$399.62 (Wins: 40/61)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$115.86
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:2/3 (NORMAL_FLOW)

3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar

Whale Radar Status:WHALE_STAGING (DOWN)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 35¢ / NO 65¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 16.3% vs Implied 12.5%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:YES @ 31¢ (Net Edge: 2.5¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$415,497 (61.8% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:KRAKEN ASK WALL STACKED ($1459K Ask vs $155K Bid)

4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)

{
  "multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
    "BTC": {
      "price": 77799.89,
      "bookDepthUsd": 807000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 8.4,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 65.35,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
    },
    "ETH": {
      "price": 2266.99,
      "bookDepthUsd": 420000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 5.24,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "SOL": {
      "price": 95.14,
      "bookDepthUsd": 210000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.63,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "XRP": {
      "price": 1.2532,
      "bookDepthUsd": 140000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "price": 0.0756778,
      "bookDepthUsd": 110000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "GOLD_GC": {
      "price": 2785.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 650000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
      "venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
      "price": 71.25,
      "bookDepthUsd": 380000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
      "venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "PALLADIUM_PA": {
      "price": 1142,
      "bookDepthUsd": 65000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
      "venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
    }
  },
  "moduleFitness": {
    "LOW_VOL_PIN": {
      "triggers": 16,
      "rejected": 2,
      "trades": 14,
      "officialSettledTrades": 14,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 71.4,
      "netDollars": 10.36,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 64.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": -3.64,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 10.36,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "FAST_IGNITION": {
      "triggers": 177,
      "rejected": 23,
      "trades": 154,
      "officialSettledTrades": 154,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 61,
      "netDollars": -36.04,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 62.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": -11.04,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -9.37,
      "status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
    },
    "BOTTOM_FLIP": {
      "triggers": 59,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 54,
      "officialSettledTrades": 54,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 18.5,
      "netDollars": -84.78,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 16.7,
      "proxyNetDollars": -136.78,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 74.63,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "SURE_THING_GRIND": {
      "triggers": 15,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 10,
      "officialSettledTrades": 10,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 80,
      "netDollars": -9.51,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 90,
      "proxyNetDollars": 1.49,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -9.51,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
      "triggers": 48,
      "rejected": 8,
      "trades": 40,
      "officialSettledTrades": 40,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 27.5,
      "netDollars": 102.88,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 32.5,
      "proxyNetDollars": 208.88,
      "makerTouches": 22,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 22,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 113.91,
      "rolling20Dollars": 66.99,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    }
  },
  "crossCoinCanaries": {
    "BTC": {
      "px": 77799.89,
      "buy15sUsd": 1064,
      "sell15sUsd": 28,
      "net15sUsd": 1036,
      "imbalancePct": 94.8,
      "rvol15s": 0.04,
      "ret3mBps": -0.52
    },
    "ETH": {
      "px": 2266.99,
      "buy15sUsd": 90,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 90,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0.01,
      "ret3mBps": 3.8
    },
    "SOL": {
      "px": 95.14,
      "buy15sUsd": 875,
      "sell15sUsd": 568,
      "net15sUsd": 306,
      "imbalancePct": 21.2,
      "rvol15s": 0.06,
      "ret3mBps": 3.15
    },
    "XRP": {
      "px": 1.2532,
      "buy15sUsd": 125,
      "sell15sUsd": 265,
      "net15sUsd": -140,
      "imbalancePct": 35.9,
      "rvol15s": 0.04,
      "ret3mBps": 2.39
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "px": 0.0756778,
      "buy15sUsd": 5,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 5,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0,
      "ret3mBps": -1.93
    }
  }
}