KEYSTONE · MORPHO DIGITAL ORGANISM & FIGHT CLUB DESK

Updated: 2026-11-01T02:17:00.517Z · Tailscale: http://100.99.175.106:8790/ · Flip Watch: Port 8788

1. Live Round & Market Shape

Ticker:KXBTC15M-26OCT312230-30
Spot vs Strike:$77618.76 vs $77618.25 (+$0.51)
Time Left:782s (t_eff: 12.37m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 54/55¢ · NO 45/46¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $1877K / Ask $1K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:LOW_VOL_PIN / CHOP_NEUTRAL

2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status

Real Trader Status:ARMED
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$83.3 (Open Pos: NONE)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$539.89 (Wins: 23/34)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$75.15
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:1/3 (NORMAL_FLOW)

3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar

Whale Radar Status:WHALE_STAGING (UP)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 50¢ / NO 50¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 12% vs Implied 2%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:NO @ 46¢ (Net Edge: 2.2¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$214,770 (66.6% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:KRAKEN BID WALL STACKED ($1877K Bid vs $1K Ask)

4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)

{
  "multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
    "BTC": {
      "price": 77618.76,
      "bookDepthUsd": 939000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 7.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 58.99,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
    },
    "ETH": {
      "price": 2265.48,
      "bookDepthUsd": 420000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 5.23,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "SOL": {
      "price": 95.44,
      "bookDepthUsd": 210000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.64,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "XRP": {
      "price": 1.2487,
      "bookDepthUsd": 140000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "price": 0.07554,
      "bookDepthUsd": 110000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "GOLD_GC": {
      "price": 2785.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 650000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
      "venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
      "price": 71.25,
      "bookDepthUsd": 380000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
      "venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "PALLADIUM_PA": {
      "price": 1142,
      "bookDepthUsd": 65000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
      "venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
    }
  },
  "moduleFitness": {
    "LOW_VOL_PIN": {
      "triggers": 12,
      "rejected": 2,
      "trades": 10,
      "officialSettledTrades": 10,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 70,
      "netDollars": -0.65,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 80,
      "proxyNetDollars": 16.35,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -0.65,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "FAST_IGNITION": {
      "triggers": 157,
      "rejected": 18,
      "trades": 139,
      "officialSettledTrades": 139,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 61.2,
      "netDollars": -31.57,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 63.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": 9.43,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -71.9,
      "status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
    },
    "BOTTOM_FLIP": {
      "triggers": 54,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 49,
      "officialSettledTrades": 49,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 18.4,
      "netDollars": -84.28,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 18.4,
      "proxyNetDollars": -84.28,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 67.62,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "SURE_THING_GRIND": {
      "triggers": 14,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 9,
      "officialSettledTrades": 9,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 77.8,
      "netDollars": -10.85,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 88.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": 0.15,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -10.85,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
      "triggers": 36,
      "rejected": 8,
      "trades": 28,
      "officialSettledTrades": 28,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 32.1,
      "netDollars": 128.42,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 42.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": 289.42,
      "makerTouches": 17,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 17,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 85.91,
      "rolling20Dollars": 211.93,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    }
  },
  "crossCoinCanaries": {
    "BTC": {
      "px": 77618.76,
      "buy15sUsd": 79344,
      "sell15sUsd": 7130,
      "net15sUsd": 72214,
      "imbalancePct": 83.5,
      "rvol15s": 5.86,
      "ret3mBps": -0.67
    },
    "ETH": {
      "px": 2265.48,
      "buy15sUsd": 18498,
      "sell15sUsd": 7641,
      "net15sUsd": 10858,
      "imbalancePct": 41.5,
      "rvol15s": 0.97,
      "ret3mBps": 1.28
    },
    "SOL": {
      "px": 95.44,
      "buy15sUsd": 5535,
      "sell15sUsd": 309,
      "net15sUsd": 5227,
      "imbalancePct": 89.4,
      "rvol15s": 0.58,
      "ret3mBps": 2.1
    },
    "XRP": {
      "px": 1.2487,
      "buy15sUsd": 4512,
      "sell15sUsd": 3520,
      "net15sUsd": 992,
      "imbalancePct": 12.4,
      "rvol15s": 0.8,
      "ret3mBps": 0
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "px": 0.07554,
      "buy15sUsd": 0,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 0,
      "imbalancePct": 0,
      "rvol15s": 0,
      "ret3mBps": -2.65
    }
  }
}