KEYSTONE · MORPHO DIGITAL ORGANISM & FIGHT CLUB DESK

Updated: 2026-11-01T01:26:47.143Z · Tailscale: http://100.99.175.106:8790/ · Flip Watch: Port 8788

1. Live Round & Market Shape

Ticker:KXBTC15M-26OCT312130-30
Spot vs Strike:$77569.59 vs $77555.23 (+$14.36)
Time Left:195s (t_eff: 2.58m)
Kalshi YES / NO Ask:YES 87/88¢ · NO 12/13¢
Kraken $15 Walls:Bid $116K / Ask $1308K
Macro Shape / Live Regime:LOW_VOL_PIN / CHOP_NEUTRAL

2. Banks, Jev Gatekeeper & Kalshi Status

Real Trader Status:ARMED
Real Kalshi Cash Balance:$82.28 (Open Pos: NONE)
Jeff Brain Paper Bank ($400):$433.52 (Wins: 21/32)
Self-Funding Compute Reserve (15%):$65.42
Jev Gatekeeper Verdict:APPROVE (74%)
5m Polymarket Seam:3/3 (NORMAL_FLOW)

3. Tiger Statistical Fair-Value & Whale Pre-Hit Radar

Whale Radar Status:WHALE_STAGING (DOWN)
Tiger Fair YES / NO:YES 71¢ / NO 29¢
Realized vs Implied Vol:Real 15.3% vs Implied 7.3%
Bottom Scalp Candidate:NO @ 13¢ (Net Edge: 15.2¢)
15s Net Taker Flow:$-312,403 (20.9% imb)
60s Forced Liquidations:+$0 Short / -$0 Long (NORMAL)
Funding / OI / Gamma Pin:0bps · L/S 1 · Pin $78000
Cross-Coin Canary Laggard:NO_BASKET_DIVERGENCE
Whale Signal:KRAKEN ASK WALL STACKED ($1308K Ask vs $116K Bid)

4. Multi-Asset & Commodity Bump Matrix (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE + Gold/Oil/Palladium)

{
  "multiAssetBumpMatrix": {
    "BTC": {
      "price": 77569.59,
      "bookDepthUsd": 712000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 9.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 70.59,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Perps"
    },
    "ETH": {
      "price": 2262.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 420000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 23.1,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 5.23,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "SOL": {
      "price": 95.58,
      "bookDepthUsd": 210000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 66.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.64,
      "venue": "Kalshi 15m / Poly 5m"
    },
    "XRP": {
      "price": 1.2531,
      "bookDepthUsd": 140000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 74.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0093,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "price": 0.07571,
      "bookDepthUsd": 110000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 119.9,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.0009,
      "venue": "Kalshi / Poly"
    },
    "GOLD_GC": {
      "price": 2785.4,
      "bookDepthUsd": 650000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 5.6,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 1.56,
      "venue": "CME / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "CRUDE_OIL_CL": {
      "price": 71.25,
      "bookDepthUsd": 380000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 26,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 0.19,
      "venue": "NYMEX / Kalshi Bracket"
    },
    "PALLADIUM_PA": {
      "price": 1142,
      "bookDepthUsd": 65000,
      "estBumpBpsOn250kClip": 180,
      "estPriceBumpUsd": 20.56,
      "venue": "NYMEX Thin-Book Sweep"
    }
  },
  "moduleFitness": {
    "LOW_VOL_PIN": {
      "triggers": 12,
      "rejected": 2,
      "trades": 10,
      "officialSettledTrades": 10,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 70,
      "netDollars": -0.65,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 80,
      "proxyNetDollars": 16.35,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -0.65,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "FAST_IGNITION": {
      "triggers": 156,
      "rejected": 17,
      "trades": 139,
      "officialSettledTrades": 139,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 61.2,
      "netDollars": -31.57,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 63.3,
      "proxyNetDollars": 9.43,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -71.9,
      "status": "SHADOW_PAPER"
    },
    "BOTTOM_FLIP": {
      "triggers": 53,
      "rejected": 5,
      "trades": 48,
      "officialSettledTrades": 48,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 16.7,
      "netDollars": -116.85,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 16.7,
      "proxyNetDollars": -116.85,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": 24.58,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    },
    "SURE_THING_GRIND": {
      "triggers": 13,
      "rejected": 4,
      "trades": 9,
      "officialSettledTrades": 9,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 77.8,
      "netDollars": -10.85,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 88.9,
      "proxyNetDollars": 0.15,
      "makerTouches": 0,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 0,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 0,
      "rolling20Dollars": -10.85,
      "status": "SHADOW_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES"
    },
    "JEFF_BRAIN_FADE": {
      "triggers": 35,
      "rejected": 8,
      "trades": 27,
      "officialSettledTrades": 27,
      "pendingSettlementTrades": 0,
      "winRatePct": 29.6,
      "netDollars": 95.85,
      "proxyWinRatePct": 40.7,
      "proxyNetDollars": 256.85,
      "makerTouches": 16,
      "makerStrictCrosses": 16,
      "touchHypotheticalNetDollars": 81.29,
      "rolling20Dollars": 168.93,
      "status": "ARMED_ACTIVE"
    }
  },
  "crossCoinCanaries": {
    "BTC": {
      "px": 77569.59,
      "buy15sUsd": 1838,
      "sell15sUsd": 1142,
      "net15sUsd": 696,
      "imbalancePct": 23.4,
      "rvol15s": 0.14,
      "ret3mBps": 0.59
    },
    "ETH": {
      "px": 2262.4,
      "buy15sUsd": 3993,
      "sell15sUsd": 1168,
      "net15sUsd": 2825,
      "imbalancePct": 54.7,
      "rvol15s": 0.11,
      "ret3mBps": 0
    },
    "SOL": {
      "px": 95.58,
      "buy15sUsd": 597,
      "sell15sUsd": 3733,
      "net15sUsd": -3136,
      "imbalancePct": 72.4,
      "rvol15s": 0.37,
      "ret3mBps": -3.14
    },
    "XRP": {
      "px": 1.2531,
      "buy15sUsd": 799,
      "sell15sUsd": 419,
      "net15sUsd": 380,
      "imbalancePct": 31.2,
      "rvol15s": 0.1,
      "ret3mBps": -4.79
    },
    "DOGE": {
      "px": 0.07571,
      "buy15sUsd": 0,
      "sell15sUsd": 0,
      "net15sUsd": 0,
      "imbalancePct": 100,
      "rvol15s": 0,
      "ret3mBps": 2.55
    }
  }
}